So, what about that missing Malaysian airliner....

[nickjtc]

.... conspiracy theory? UFO abduction? Pilot suicide? Hijacking? "Bermuda Triangle" of the Indian Ocean?...........................???

Enquiring minds need to know. 

[Spud]

Diago Garcia 

cheers Spud 

[Bixxer Bob]

 It took a while for the obvious stuff to come out.

Transponders off 14 mins apart and no mayday = deliberate act.

Engine data bursts continue while over ocean = aircraft still flying

Satellite chirps continue for some time = ditto

One chirp will give a fix; several will plot a course unless the aircraft is zigzagging in which case it has to be within a certain radius of the last chirp based on remaining fuel / speed.

A hijack is unlikely as the flight decks have been locked areas for a long time so the whole thing points to pilot or copilot or both going rogue.  Only my opinion of course.....

[Mustang]

Diago Garcia 

cheers Spud 

highly doubtful .............

[nickjtc]

And nobody wants to even think about admitting that it might be pilot suicide....In the two other instances of this the airlines involved flim flammed mightily to avoid the potential litigation claims.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_990
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SilkAir_Flight_185

[ssevy]

If it was suicide, then all attempts to apply rationale thinking to any cause and effect are off the table. Once a person decides to end it all, that means that rationale thought has just exited the room, since self-preservation is hardwired so deeply in us; a person commiting suicide has over ridden some very intense instinctive behavior.
Exceptions might include painful disease or terminal illness or severe depression, but it would seem likely that any of these issues would have been noticed.
During the earliest reports, I really believed it had been hijacked to an abandoned airfield somewhere to be turned into a giant bomb.
I imagine the US knows exactly where it is, but won't release the info so as not to reveal our satellite tracking capabilities.

[Spud]

suicide it's not, if the pilot brought the plane down then it's mass murder. I don't understand how a plane can simply go missing in this day and age.

cheers Spud 

[Bixxer Bob]

..... I don't understand how a plane can simply go missing in this day and age.

cheers Spud 

I'm not big on conspiracy theories because I've read some howlers about military stuff I was directly involved in at the time, but in this instance I'm with Sevvy; I think it's whereabouts is known but not disclosed.

[Chris Canning]

I imagine the US knows exactly where it is, but won't release the info so as not to reveal our satellite tracking capabilities.

I've thought the same from day one,in the end they'll conveniently have a boat find it.

[nickjtc]

I suppose it's because of the fact that air travel is considered 'safe' that we see so many illogical situations to do with airliners. Like, why is it possible to turn off the flight recorders and transponders? Why isn't every plane equipped with a GPS transmitter?

Or will it take an event like this one to change peoples thoughts?

[Bixxer Bob]

I suppose it's because of the fact that air travel is considered 'safe' that we see so many illogical situations to do with airliners. Like, why is it possible to turn off the flight recorders and transponders? Why isn't every plane equipped with a GPS transmitter?

Or will it take an event like this one to change peoples thoughts?

The transponders were giving a fix, that's how FlightRadarPro were able to show it's course until they were switched off.  FRP is a brilliant app by the way, lets you see the arrivals board at you local airport so you know if flights are on time and see where pretty much any aircraft is in the worls in near real time.

[Mustang]

 

[nickjtc]

Har har, har de har. 

[Nick Calne]

This has been the big subject of conversation in my office and the consensus is that we don't think we are being told the truth either, but we haven't heard anything convincing yet.  Here is the Nickcalne (+ colleagues) breakdown...

Crash (Accidental, into sea) - Debris in sea, would have been on radar, transponders etc wouldn't have been switched off.

Crash (Accidental, into land) - People would have noticed by now, would have been on radar, transponders etc wouldn't have been switched off.

Bomb on board - Debris got to go somewhere, would have been on radar, transponders etc wouldn't have been switched off.  Pilots may have had time to radio a mayday too.  Also why, if the most likely terrorists are muslims, would muslims be blowing up passengers that are predominantly other muslims, on a plane from a muslim country?  (That said the guy travelling on the plane with stolen passports was identified as Iranian and therefore probably a Shi-ite, not a Sunni)

Hit by a missile from a ship - Debris somewhere again, missile would have been on radar, might explain why transponders got turned off, but not why it continued to fly.  Some one has to fire a missile and that would be tracked on radar.

Flew to a country sympathetic with Terrorists - Possibly it is in a country like Dagestan / Turkmenistan / Pakistan / Chechnya / Ireland? or something, plane's in a hangar out of sight, but really could a story so big be kept quiet for so long?  That country would be in real trouble if this were found out.  Perhaps a reason to keep it quiet?  This is probably the best outcome as the passengers might be alive.  Could it fly around India or across India and avoid detection?

Plane landed safely somewhere and is under the control of a (powerful) government.  Say for instance, in China, as a way of making a pretext / excuse  / reason to further their expansionist vision in the area.  Possibly to put pressure on the Malaysian government?  That would be a very bold move indeed and quite dangerous, not very Chinese in nature to do this.

Hijack and fiddle about until the fuel runs out - Why would any self-respecting terrorist do this?  Having gone to the lengths of hijacking the plane and disabling the transponders, why would you not make the 'statement' of doing something more direct with it.  (Such as 9/11...)

Electrical Fire - Could knock out the transponders etc and cause the plane to crash but surely a mayday radio call from the crew before it went down?

Decompression Event - Would explain why the plane turned around and descended to 12,000ft, but turn off the transponders and no mayday call?  There were reports of the planning flying to 45,000ft.  If true the plane may have experienced a decompression which left everyone with insufficient oxygen including pilots and from then on anything could happen.

And the ridiculous...

Rothschild /Blackstone patent conspiracy theory - Daren't comment, but one of the guys in the office swears this is the answer.

Diego Garcia - Isn't it a massive US military base?  I think the Americans might have noticed the plane coming... and quite understandably shot it down long before it got there.  Would they own up to this?  Not necessarily.  Could they keep that a secret?  Not much chance of that given the recent Snowdon / Manning debacles.

Suicide - There are two pilots in the plane, if one wanted to commit suicide I would imagine the other would be really pissed off and might think to mention it on the radio.  I think that suicide gets ruled out, unless they both wanted to commit suicide?  There were rumours that the pilot's wife had told him the day before that she was leaving him for another man.  Not very Islamic, so a possbile reason for a cover up...but only rumours

Aliens - I expect most aliens have better things to do then blow up aeroplanes. They came 100m light years across the endless void of space to blow up a plane in the middle of nowhere?  No, when they come they will blow up the White House, like on Independence Day, then go to Stonehenge.

Bermuda Triangle - too far away...

It is a mystery, but a very interesting one.

[Bixxer Bob]

Interesting points Nick, but the transponders were switched off with a gap of (I think) 14 minutes - plenty of time to get a Mayday off.

Crashing would have stopped the data bursts / chirps.

The people receiving the chirps know where they came from......